Addis Ababa – Rosemary DiCarlo, senior United Nations official, has warned that the conflict in Ethiopia, which has been raging for months, could turn into a civil war. The African Union envoy has also confirmed this, warning that the Ethiopian conflict could have far-reaching effects on the Horn of Africa region. To the south of Ethiopia, Kenya, the country has reportedly increased its military presence along its border.
The conflict that started last year from the Tigray province in Ethiopia has reached up to the border of the capital Addis Ababa. The TPLF, a rebel group, fighting in Tigray, has succeeded in allying with eight other armed groups in the country. This new front has threatened to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government in the capital, Addis Ababa. After the threat, the conflict in Ethiopia escalated and the government declared a six-month state of emergency. It is reported that Prime Minister Ahmed called on his supporters and the Ethiopian people to take up arms.
The refusal of both the rebel front and the government to withdraw has caused international unrest. As a result, many countries and groups, including the United Nations, have stepped up their political activities. The US ambassador is also said to have returned to Ethiopia. But the analysts say that these moves are less likely to succeed. The statements made by the officials from the United Nations and the African Union reaffirm these views.
‘The conflict that started in Tigray last year has now reached a dire state. The continued conflict has created uncertainty over the future of Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa region. The groups from Tigray have started marching towards the capital, Addis Ababa. The Ethiopian government has declared a state of emergency and said that it is fighting a war for survival. The ongoing conflict has raised the possibility of a civil war in Ethiopia’, Rosemary DiCarlo, Under-Secretary-General at the United Nations, warned.
Abiy Ahmed, who became the Prime Minister in 2018, had launched a military operation against Tigray province in November last year. He also enlisted the help of neighbouring country Eritrea for the mission. In the initial few months, the government forces succeeded in gaining control over important parts of the Tigray province, including the capital. But the situation started changing after June this year, and the rebel groups in Tigray launched vicious counterattacks. The rebel groups have gained control over the entire Tigray province, occupying key areas in neighbouring provinces. The alliances with other groups in the country have increased the strength of groups fighting against Prime Minister Ahmed.
The effects of the Ethiopian conflict are being felt in other African countries. Kenya has increased defence deployments on its border. The peace deal in South Sudan is in jeopardy and there are fears of new violence in the country. The African analysts warn that the Ethiopian conflict will influence developments in Sudan, Somalia and even Eritrea.
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