New Delhi: The Indo-US bilateral trade has surpassed Indo-China bilateral trade. This news was published a few hours before the arrival of the US President in India. Analysts have claimed that the bilateral trade will only increase in the coming times, looking at the trend in the bilateral trade between the two countries. Analysts are also pointing to the trade benefits of nearly $16 billion accrued to India, in the bilateral trade with the United States, during 2018-19.
The bilateral trade between India and the United States reached $87.95 billion in the financial year 2018-19. The trade with China in the corresponding period stood at $87.07 billion. Therefore, the United States seems to have overtaken China in bilateral trade with India. More importantly, India is getting a major trade surplus benefit, in the bilateral trade with the United States. India is having a trade surplus of $16.85 billion in the US bilateral trade. Whereas, there is a trade deficit of $53.56 billion in the Indo-Chinese bilateral trade.
Drawing attention to this fact, the analysts are pointing to the trade surplus in the bilateral trade with the United States. As per these analysts, if India signs a trade agreement with the United States, the US markets will be open to the Indian industry and this will hugely benefit India. But the analysts have also cautioned that given the current trends, signing a trade agreement with the United States could prove to be risky. India cannot compete with the United States, especially in agricultural produce and food processing industry. Therefore, as per some analysts, it will be better for India to have a cautious approach towards the agreement.
Meanwhile, before President Trump’s India visit, it was being claimed that a trade agreement will be signed between India and the United States. The negotiations had started between the two countries on the subject. But the talks failed on certain issues and it was clarified that the trade agreement will not be signed during President Trump’s visit. President Trump has indicated that the stand of the United States will be tough during the trade negotiations with India, saying that India has delivered severe jolts to the United States in the bilateral trade till now.
India has avoided discussing the matter further and has not revealed any details of the negotiations with the United States. Indications are that the leaderships of both the countries will come to an agreement and the trade talks will be successful in the future. President Trump had claimed that the bilateral trade agreement will be signed after the US presidential elections. Referring to this, analysts claim that the possibility of a trade agreement between the two countries has not been ruled out.
As per the Indian industry sector, the United States too will be benefited with India, if the disputes in the bilateral trade are cleared and a trade agreement is signed. Whereas, some US analysts have expressed confidence that the policy-based cooperation between the United States and India will have a positive effect on the bilateral trade. The logic behind the claim of the US analysts is that having a dispute with a strong country like China, the United States cannot ignore the vast Indian marketplace.