No recession threat for Indian economy even if US, Europe, Japan and

New Delhi: Concern is being expressed that the United States, European countries, Japan and China will all be hit by the economic recession. It will also have some impact on India’s growth rate. However, the Indian economy is unlikely to face the risk of recession. Rajiv Kumar, former Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog, has expressed confidence that the Indian economy will grow at a growth rate of 6-7 per cent in the financial year 2023-24, despite the global slowdown. Along with this, Rajiv Kumar said in an interview with PTI that the country needs to focus more on increasing exports.

Moreover, the Coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent conflict in Ukraine are harming the global economy. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted that a recession could hit the US economy. The economic condition of countries with strong economies in Europe has also deteriorated and these countries are struggling to survive the recession impact. Japan is also facing very big economic problems, and there are claims that the collapse of China’s economy can shock the whole world. Thus, at a time when the economies of all the major countries of the world are in the shadow of a recession, international financial institutions and economists are confident this threat is unlikely for India. Former NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar also confirmed the same.

The World Bank has reported that the Indian economy will grow at a growth rate of 6.5 percent in the financial year 2022-23. This growth rate is one percent less than the earlier forecast. Global recession will have some effect on India. But, India will not suffer from the crisis of economic recession faced by countries like the United States, European countries, Japan and China. Rajiv Kumar believed that India will progress at a 6 to 7 per cent growth rate in the financial year 2023-24. Inflation in India will remain under control during this period. However, Rajiv Kumar pointed out that many things will depend on the price and supply of fuels.

Along with the currencies of other major countries worldwide, the Indian rupee has also depreciated against the USD. However, Rajiv Kumar said that the general public does not generally use imported goods, so it is not likely to have a big impact on them. The former Vice Chairman of the NITI Aayog also claimed that rather than appreciating the value of the rupee, it is better for the rupee to remain close to its real value, thereby reducing the chances of a major fall. While expressing confidence in the performance of the Indian economy, Rajiv Kumar advised the country to focus more on exports.

A comprehensive policy has to be formulated to increase exports. However, the same policy can only be applied to some of the countries. The states of Punjab, with no coastline and Tamil Nadu with a large coastline have traditional knowledge of how to trade. The former Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog has pointed out that a single policy cannot be applied to such states for exports. They have to be assessed independently.

Meanwhile, Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has said that India is emerging as a shining star amid global financial uncertainty. The Commerce Minister made this claim during an event held in Mumbai. During the challenging period after the end of the Coronavirus pandemic, the government took viable measures to bring the country’s economy back on track. Goyal said that these schemes were implemented considering the welfare of all the sections of society and the results are becoming apparent.